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By C. Peter Timmer

The gradually diminishing position of agriculture on this planet economy_a principally unperceived, poorly understood, yet profound change_is as transformational for developmental fiscal notion as gravity has been for physics. C. Peter Timmer argues that policymakers who forget about this primary shift danger mismanaging their fiscal improvement guidelines, with serious results. The 'structural transformation' of constructing economies has 4 major gains: a falling proportion of agriculture in fiscal output and employment; a emerging percentage of city financial task in and glossy companies; the migration of rural employees to city settings; and a demographic transition in start and loss of life charges that usually ends up in a spurt in inhabitants development ahead of a brand new equilibrium is reached. even if all constructing economies adventure those transitions, dealing with the ensuing political effects has been a big problem for policymakers during the last half-century. attempting to cease the structural transformation easily doesn't paintings. Bolstering the skill of the terrible to learn from swap, even though, does. Investments in human assets, for example_especially in schooling and health_are the main promising techniques to easing the transitions of a constructing countryOs structural transformation. Such thoughts require major public-sector assets and coverage help to augment rural productiveness and rely on political approaches which are delicate to the pressures generated by means of the structural transformation. developing effective coverage mechanisms to steer constructing economies throughout the structural transformation may be a concern of worldwide governments within the twenty-first century. This monograph, an international with no Agriculture, was once the 2007 Henry Wendt Lecture, introduced on the American firm Institute in Washington, D.C. on October 30, 2007. The Wendt Lecture is introduced each year via a pupil who has made significant contributions to our realizing of the fashionable phenomenon of globalization and its effects for social welfare, govt coverage, and the growth of liberal political associations.

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Extra info for A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series)

Example text

Only six of the eighty-five country effects are not statistically significant,23 and, overall, the country effects are closely related to per-capita GDP. The lnGDPpc variable alone explains 85 percent of the variance in the individual country coefficients. Relatively little additional country variance remains to be explained in the employment-share relationship, and, clearly, the per-capita income effects are utterly dominant. 91 in regression B-3. Only ten of the eighty-five country-effect coefficients lack statistical significance, although the relative size and significance of the coefficients are much smaller for the GDP regressions than for the employment regressions.

2 The smallholder pessimists, such as Maxwell,3 argue that smallscale agriculture is becoming increasingly uncompetitive in the face of the revolution in supply chains and the globalization of food trade. The smallholder optimists, on the other hand, led by Lipton and scholars at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), hold that the historic relationships between agriculture and economic growth still hold, especially in Africa, where smallholders are “protected” by high transportation costs and the cultivation of IS AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT MORE DIFFICULT?

The political economy of these choices is explored below, where the agricultural terms of trade are split into two components, one dependent on world prices for agricultural commodities and energy, the second a residual reflecting domestic factors in the formation of the agricultural terms of trade. The net effect of these forces on the gap between labor productivity in the two sectors is that the turning point in the gap relationship (after which labor productivity in agriculture begins to converge with labor productivity in nonagriculture) is sharply lower in the Asian sample.

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